Petroleum Science >2016,??Issue 3:??592-603 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-016-0101-x
Forecasting of China’s natural gas production and its policyimplications Open?Access
文章信息
作者：Shi-Qun Li,Bao-Sheng Zhang and Xu Tang
作者单位：
School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China
投稿时间：2015-10-09
引用方式：Li, SQ., Zhang, BS. & Tang, X. Pet. Sci. (2016) 13: 592. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-016-0101-x
文章摘要
With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation
and implementation of clean energy strategies,
China’s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development
phase, and natural gas is playing an increasingly
important role in China’s energy structure. This paper uses
a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional
natural gas production, where accuracy and reasonableness
compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking
remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.
The forecast shows that China’s natural gas production will
maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic
meters a year coming in 2036; in 2020, natural gas production
will surpass that of oil to become a more important
source of energy. Natural gas will play an important role in
optimizing China’s energy consumption structure and will
be a strategic replacement of oil. This will require that
exploration and development of conventional natural gas is
highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably
planned. As well, full use should be made of
domestic and international markets. Initiative should also
be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional
and deepwater gas, which shall form a complement
to the development of China’s conventional natural
gas industry.
and implementation of clean energy strategies,
China’s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development
phase, and natural gas is playing an increasingly
important role in China’s energy structure. This paper uses
a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional
natural gas production, where accuracy and reasonableness
compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking
remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.
The forecast shows that China’s natural gas production will
maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic
meters a year coming in 2036; in 2020, natural gas production
will surpass that of oil to become a more important
source of energy. Natural gas will play an important role in
optimizing China’s energy consumption structure and will
be a strategic replacement of oil. This will require that
exploration and development of conventional natural gas is
highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably
planned. As well, full use should be made of
domestic and international markets. Initiative should also
be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional
and deepwater gas, which shall form a complement
to the development of China’s conventional natural
gas industry.
关键词
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Natural gas Production forecast GeneralizedWeng model Energy structure Policy implication