Petroleum Science >2012,??Issue 3:??408-415 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-012-0225-6
Production sharing contract: An analysis based on an oil price stochastic process Open?Access
文章信息
作者：Liu Mingming,Wang Zhen,Zhao Lin,Pan Yanni and Xiao Fei
作者单位：
School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;China National Oil & Gas Exploration and Development Corporation, Beijing 100083, China;School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China
投稿时间：2011-12-06
引用方式：Liu, M., Wang, Z., Zhao, L. et al. Pet. Sci. (2012) 9: 408. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-012-0225-6
文章摘要
Assuming that oil price follows the stochastic processes of Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) or the Mean-Reverting Process (MRP), this paper takes the net present value (NPV) as an economic index and models the PSC in 11 different scenarios by changing the value of each contract element (i.e. royalty, cost oil, profit oil as well as income tax). Then the NPVs are shown in probability density graphs to investigate the effect of different elements on contract economics. The results show that under oil price uncertainty the influence of profit oil and income tax on NPV are more significant than those of royalty and cost oil, while a tax holiday could improve the contractor’s financial status remarkably. Results also show that MRP is more appropriate for cases with low future oil price volatility, and GBM is best for high future oil price volatility.
关键词
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Production sharing, Geometric Brownian motion, Mean-Reverting Process, oil contract, international petroleum cooperation