Petroleum Science >2011,??Issue 3:??365-370 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-011-0154-9
Forecast and analysis of the “roof effect” of world net oil-exporting capacity Open?Access
文章信息
作者：TONG Xiaoguang,ZHAO Lin,WANG Zhen and ZHANG Haiying
作者单位：
School of Business, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation, Beijing 100034, China;School of Business, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation, Beijing 100034, China;School of Business, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;School of Business, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China
投稿时间：2010-12-29
引用方式：Tong, X., Zhao, L., Wang, Z. et al. Pet. Sci. (2011) 8: 365. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-011-0154-9
文章摘要
Oil is extremely crucial to the development of the modern economy. It is important to forecast the oil supply capacity due to its scarcity and non-renewability. This paper attempts to forecast and analyze thirty-five current and potential net oil-exporting countries. Integrating both qualitative and quantitative methods, the oil production and consumption are predicted based on historical data, so that the world net oil-exporting capacity can be obtained. The results show that the “roof effect” of the world net oil-exporting capacity may appear before 2030. Unconventional oil will play an important role in the future world oil market. The competition and cooperation relationships between OPEC and non-OPEC will last for a long time.
关键词
-
Oil production, oil consumption, net oil-exporting capacity, roof effect