Petroleum Science >2009,??Issue 3:??319-326 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-009-0051-7
A stochastic approach for integrating market and technical uncertainties in economic evaluations ofpetroleum development Open?Access
文章信息
作者：Changhyup Park,Joe M. Kang and Taewoong Ahn
作者单位：
BK21 Research Division for Energy Resources, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea;Division of Energy Systems Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea;Division of Energy Systems Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea
投稿时间：2009-01-19
引用方式：Park, C., Kang, J.M. & Ahn, T. Pet. Sci. (2009) 6: 319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12182-009-0051-7
文章摘要
The paper presents a stochastic and economic analysis for petroleum development under uncertain market and technical environments. Mean-reversion with jumps for price forecasting is used to consider market uncertainty, while various scenarios for the reservoir properties and cost are employed to consider technical uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to obtain the feasible range of net present values and internal rates of return. The influence of stochastic parameters is examined through correlation coefficients. The stochastic approach yields more reliable evaluation and effectively investigates the characteristics of development. The integration of uncertainties and contractual terms results in an irregular tendency in the future cash flow and reveals that a larger reserve does not guarantee a greater profit. The reserve and the well rate affect the economic values whereas the parameters for price prediction don’t. The research confirms the necessity of qualifying uncertainties for realistic decision-making at the initial stage of
development.
development.
关键词
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Uncertainty, petroleum development, decision-making, stochastic approach, mean reversion with jumps